Climate change projections for Greater Manchester, version 2


Gina Cavan


This document summarises the climate projections information for Greater Manchester in tables, graphs, maps and descriptions. Specifically, it focuses on information for the 2050s (2040–2069) for the low and high emissions scenarios, and for three probability levels. In addition, outputs from the weather generator for central Manchester report all time periods and emissions scenarios. It begins by providing a brief background to climate change, the emissions scenarios used in UKCP09, an introduction to the probability levels including an explanation of how probability should be interpreted in the climate projections, and a note on time periods. It then outlines the climate zone analysis undertaken for Greater Manchester, provides an introduction to the weather generator, and presents the future daily weather generator outputs for the Greater Manchester conurbation and central Manchester area.

The information on the future climate of the Greater Manchester is particularly valuable to a wide range of stakeholder groups within the conurbation wishing to learn more about this subject. The analysis provided here is specific to Greater Manchester: it is not available for any other conurbation at this level and refines the most recent climate projections.