Drivers of change: exploring forces with the potential to shape Greater Manchester's growth and development


Jeremy Carter


The EcoCities project takes a long-term perspective, and includes climate change projections that focus on the 2050s. Although it is not possible to predict how the future might unfold over such time periods, it is clear that Greater Manchester will itself experience significant changes over the coming decades, as it has done over the course of its history. A number of ‘drivers of change’ will influence the direction of the city-region’s future.

As part of EcoCities, a set of scenarios have been created to help inform long-term decision making around Greater Manchester’s adaptation responses. Drivers of change play an important role in the process of creating scenarios, forming a framework around which they are built. In effect, the drivers are the ‘raw materials’ that are used to develop scenario narratives.

This report focuses on 10 key drivers of change that have the potential to exert a considerable influence over Greater Manchester in the coming decades. Aside from contributing to the scenario development process, this analysis provides a useful insight for individuals and organisations wishing to understand more about the forces shaping Greater Manchester’s future.